In terms of revolutions this one was almost bloodless. Yet there were the martyrs: the people killed, the people injured, and the people arrested. The powerful never give up their power easily. The demonstrators were well aware of the risks they were taking in openly opposing the Mubarak regime. The adrenaline flowed day and night as they stood up to the threats and uncertainties. The rejection of each of the government’s attempts to compromise increased the tension and the apprehension. The last straw for the generals of the army probably came when workers around the nation joined in the demonstrations. The implied threat of a general strike that would shut the nation down was too real and too dangerous. Mr. Mubarak had to resign. His resignation was a great victory that has empowered the people.
It is little wonder that the fall of a despot creates a feeling of euphoria and high sky-high expectations. The oppression is gone; the people are now free to chart their own course, and they are certain that this will instantly make everything better. Unfortunately, it is not that simple. The problem for the Egyptian people is much greater than establishing an orderly transition of rule. The thing we must bear in mind is that King Louis XVI of France and Tsar Nicholas II of Russia were not deposed because they were despots; the people rose up against them because of severe economic conditions that made the despotism intolerable. Such is also the case in Egypt. Since the economic problems are far too complex to yield to solutions that are as simple or as quick as changing governments many of the grievances of the people will linger after a new government is formed. This reality places any new government in peril because it is almost impossible to make suffering people understand why the government cannot meet their high expectations or all of their demands. The most likely result of this will be disillusionment and a demand for more drastic changes.
The disillusionment of the people is fertile ground for demagogues who advocate radical changes that rarely work. The worst case scenario is the emergence of ruthless demagogues who demonize other people and nations to create enemies they can blame for all of Egypt’s problems. This would put Egypt’s honest moderates at an extreme disadvantage. It is much easier to blame Israel, the United States, and all of the capitalists of the western world than it is to deal with the real problems. It does not take Al Qaeda or radical Muslims to realize that. Creating enemies is the favorite tactic of all aspiring tyrants. Radical leaders used it during the French revolution, Russian revolution, and the revolution in Iran. It is, therefore, understandable that Israel, Saudi Arabia and other nations are viewing the events in Egypt with trepidation.
Israel is afraid of becoming a scapegoat for all of Egypt’s problems and of having to fight a powerful Egyptian army. The rulers in Saudi Arabia and the other Arab emirates are afraid that the events in Egypt will inspire popular uprisings in their own countries. This is particularly likely if the new Egyptian leaders decide to appeal to the impoverished by redistributing the wealth. The fact that the Egyptian demonstrators do not appear to be that radical is not much comfort at this point. It can take months or even years to see where the ouster of the old regime will lead. Although the demands of Egypt’s demonstrators are being met, many of those people are still in the streets. Like combat veterans, a large number of the demonstrators are not ready to give up the excitement, the feeling of being a part of momentous events, and the feeling of being the heroes of a great cause. They will find it difficult to return to the routines of their normal lives. This is particularly true of the young, the unemployed, and the ones who do not have families they have to provide for.
That the demonstrators do not seem to belong to a particular group is not unusual. It is rarely a single group that can claim the credit for toppling the old regime. This means that sundry leaders and groups find it necessary to compromise and cooperate with each other. Since it is the moderates who broker the compromises the government that initially replaces the old regime tends to be fairly moderate. It is when the accomplishments of the moderates fail to meet the high expectations of the people that the most ruthless leaders take advantage of the restless souls who are finding it difficult to return to their normal lives. With this danger in mind, I still think there is room for optimism and hope.
First of all Mr. Mubarak resigned quickly enough to prevent the establishment of a life style of strife and violence. Then there is the army. For decades it has been the real power in Egypt. There is little doubt that the generals persuaded Mr. Mubarak to resign. It is difficult to imagine a leader the army opposes gaining power anytime soon. In this regard the democracy that emerges might be limited somewhat, but that could have a stabilizing influence. I do not think the generals want to risk a costly war with Israel. The restraint shown by the demonstrators is also encouraging. It might indicate a willingness to lower their expectations if they see meaningful changes and some relief for the people suffering from the poor economy. The thing we cannot doubt is the need for some quick economic relief at the street level to convince the people that the government is moving in the right direction, and that that perception is as important as the reality. It is also important to provide worthy projects and public works that will help give the people a feeling of accomplishment.
We and every other nation concerned about the stability of this important region have every reason to want the new government of Egypt to succeed. As I pointed out in an earlier posting, we can help indirectly by enforcing the regulations of the commodities market that were designed to help stabilize and lower the price of food. In regard to direct aid, we and other nations should render what help we can, but we must avoid any appearance that we are trying to buy Egypt’s government. Egyptians are proud and capable people. So we, like the Egyptian people, must give the new government the chance to make its own way rather than reacting to expectations that might be unrealistic. The risks are great but so are the potential rewards. An unstable or aggressive Egypt is a threat to everyone. A peaceful, prosperous Egypt is a shining light and an inspiration for everyone.
In a final note, I think Mr. Obama has handled this situation rather well so far. His limited support of the demonstrators was consistent with our core values. It was the right thing to do. It was also the practical thing to do. Mr. Obama has and will continue to use whatever positive influence we have, but he is smart enough to realize we cannot control what happens. Standing in the way of people who are trying to peacefully resolve real grievances will only result in an unnecessary and damaging collision.
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